A Newly Elected Speaker?
The 118th Congress officially kicks off today, with the House swearing in the newly elected members, who will take their oaths of office following a vote for Speaker, a procedure that will be the first order of business. This new session begins with Republicans taking very narrow control of the House, and will culminate in an important leadership fight that will determine who is put in position to control the direction of the House GOP and its messaging.
Business will convene at noon and we will all see if House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has compromised enough to secure the gavel. While McCarthy has enough support within the majority of the Republican Party to be the ongoing leader of the GOP, the issue of whether he has secured enough votes to become House Speaker is still in question.
Republicans have only a slim majority of 222 Republicans compared to 212 Democrats, which means McCarthy needs every single vote from his side in order to secure the 218 vote threshold that would make him Speaker.
Members of the 117th Congress will have already met earlier this morning to finish any outstanding business from the last session, and at noon Eastern time, the Clerk of the House will gavel in the newly elected Congress to call a quorum. Congress has to elect a House Speaker immediately in order to begin to handle all procedural business before the chamber, which means the election will be held first and then members-elect will take their oaths of office.
Democrats are expected to nominate Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (NY) and Republicans are set to put forward McCarthy’s name. Then, the clerk will call the roll and each member will state the name of the person for whom they are voting. If no one amasses a majority of votes cast, it goes to a second ballot. If another ballot is needed, it is not clear if Congress will recess the chamber or if members will continue voting.
An important note to remember is that Members of Congress can vote for anyone they want to be Speaker. There is no hard and fast rule that the Speaker must even be a sitting Member of the House. Another option is to protest the vote by skipping the event altogether or simply by voting “present” rather than voting for a specific person. While these are options, the majority is expected to vote for the leader set forth by their parties.
Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy does have a challenger in election-denier and Trump supporter Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ). While this opposition from Biggs may not prove detrimental to McCarthy’s bid for Speaker, it has several implications that can be foretelling for the future leadership of the Republican Party.
Biggs could draw votes away from McCarthy, which could mean that McCarthy can’t meet the threshold for Speaker. It is also a pivotal moment in the struggle for control over the GOP. Will the majority of GOP power, previously wielded by Donald Trump before the 2020 election be something that continues into 2024, or will a new arm of party leadership emerge as we head into the next presidential election?
If neither side is able to secure a majority in the vote, a "floor fight" will happen. Members of Congress will continue to vote until someone is able to secure enough votes, which means frantic floor negotiations will ensue. They can adjourn to try and strike a deal in private, or they can continue to take votes. One thing is certain: the House will not officially begin this 118th Session until a speaker is elected.
According to the House Historian, a floor fight of this kind has only occurred 14 times in the 200-plus years since the first two-year Congress met in 1789. Another strategy that could save McCarthy from the ongoing embarrassment of not securing his parties’ confidence is the tactic of Republican members skipping the vote or simply voting “present.”
This would cause the number of votes that would constitute a majority to drop in real time and a lower number of votes in favor of McCarthy could garner him the Speakership. One thing is clear: the vote early this afternoon will be historical and damaging to any strength McCarthy had hoped to show.
The real question will be how dramatic Republicans are willing to get on the House floor to make a point about wanting to strike Trump from their political roster. Considering that both Biggs and McCarthy represent differing levels of commitment to the Trump doctrine, this vote will be a critical political barometer. Let’s watch together and find out.
Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter, is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines, and an analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
Paid subscriptions and one-time tributes embedded in each article allow me to keep publishing critical and informative work that is sometimes made available to the public — thank you. If you like this piece and want to support independent journalism further, you can forward this article to others, get a paid subscription or gift subscription, or donate as much as you like today.
We all know what happens to “weak” members of the Animal Kingdom, inevitably they become dinner to save the rest of the herd.
I’m guessing McCarthy will leave an “aftertaste”.
I suspect that the next two years will be a complete sh-t show regardless of who wins. Either it'll be McCarthy, who will be beholden to the seditious "freedom caucus", or it'll be someone even worse.