Cash Out With $1.9 Trillion in Covid Relief or Let it Ride for a $15 Minimum Wage?

After the Senate Parliamentarian advises that the wage increase provision was not allowed in the budget reconciliation process, Democrats now need to find another way to bypass the filibuster.

Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) talk during an event to introduce the Raise The Wage Act in the Rayburn Room at the US Capitol January 16, 2019 in Washington, DC. The proposed legislation, which will gradually raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2024, is unlikely to pass in the Republican-controlled Senate. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The Senate parliamentarian ruled on Thursday that the $15 per hour minimum wage hike in the COVID-19 economic relief package cannot be included in Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill. This is not entirely unexpected — progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said that she would still support the Covid relief package even if the minimum wage was removed, but only "If $15 is not in the package due to parliamentary reasons.”

The so-called Byrd Rule limits acceptable provisions in the reconciliation process to those that involve taxing and spending, and many Democrats expected this result. President Biden has stated that his administration prefers a stand-alone bill, brought at another time, that raises minimum wage to $15 per hour. The problem remains: passing that provision through regular order that requires 60 Senate votes will be difficult, due to a lack of support from Sen. Sinema (D-AZ), Sen. Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Republicans.

The House of Representatives is expected to vote Friday on Biden's original proposal — Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed on Thursday evening that the House would vote on the version of the bill including the minimum wage hike. “House Democrats believe that the minimum wage hike is necessary,” Pelosi stated. “Therefore, this provision will remain in the American Rescue Plan on the Floor tomorrow,” Speaker Pelosi continued, “Democrats in the House are determined to pursue every possible path in the Fight For 15."

While the bill is expected to pass in the House without any Republican votes, the hope had been high of stripping away a few Republican votes so that Democrats could claim the relief package was a bi-partisan effort. Senate experts also argue Vice President Kamala Harris has the authority to ignore the parliamentarian and rule the wage hike to be compliant — but, the White House does not appear to be seriously considering that option.

The only way Democrats could move this bill through the biggest hurdle, which is the US Senate, is if Sinema, Manchin and a few Republicans suddenly switch their positions on the wage increase, which is not likely. In order to pass the relief bill with the reconciliation wage increase provision intact, the Senate would need to vote to end the filibuster and require only a simple majority to pass bills. Again, both Manchin and Sinema have committed to oppose this avenue under any circumstance.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks during an event to introduce the Raise The Wage Act at the US Capitol on Jan. 16, 2019, in Washington, DC. Sanders is responsible for adding this $15 minimum wage increase provision into the latest covid relief bill through the reconciliation process. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/via Getty Images)

Americans are in desperate need of another relief package that would provide nearly $2 trillion in comprehensive assistance that includes: direct stimulus payments, extended unemployment insurance, new money for vaccines and helping troubled school districts. On the other hand, many workers are suffering and it costs us billions in supplemental welfare aid to keep the minimum wage so low. The low wage also only serves the wealthy corporate interests of companies who spend a lot to lobby to keep a bill like this from passing.

Passing a stand-alone bill that raises the minimum wage to $15 will face the same obstacles it faces now, without the added benefit of being attached to a popular covid relief that many are desperate to pass. The question becomes: is our best option to push for the wage raise reconciliation clause now, even at the cost of the covid relief package? Or is it better to let the wage increase come off and focus on stimulus relief now? Are the chances of passing a stand-alone bill impossible down the line? How far should Democrats in Congress go in the “Fight for Fifteen” now? How much would you risk for it?

Post your thoughts in the comments below. What should Democrats do in the face of these current obstacles and if you had to choose, would you prioritize raising the minimum wage over the next stimulus relief package?

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