Exclusive Debate Party
Be sure and join me on Substack for a live chat during the first Presidential Debate of 2024, where we can discuss what we think in real time.
Spend the Debate with SHERO!
The first Presidential Debate will be on Thursday night at 9pm/ET and I will be hosting a special insider chat party here exclusively for subscribers to my newsletter. Be sure to pregame prep with the following article, download the Substack app and consider upgrading to paid now to join us!
Even though Donald Trump will not become the formal Republican Nominee for President until the end of July, he became the presumptive nominee after winning primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state, surpassing the 1,215-delegate threshold. President Biden and Donald Trump will meet for the much anticipated first Presidential Debate of 2024, on Thursday night at 9pm/ET in Cleveland, Ohio.
I will be hosting my first exclusive live chat for paid SHERO subscribers here on Substack during the debate, so be sure to come and hang out with the SHERO community where we can discuss in real-time how we think things are going. Below is a little pre-game homework if you like that sort of thing, where I will go over a few concepts and issues that I will be thinking about as both candidates take the stage.
Trump is a Convicted Criminal
In May, Donald Trump became the first former American president to be convicted of felony crimes after a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through hush money payments.
While this latest conviction has done little to slow the amount of support Trump continues to maintain headed into Thursday night, it does pose certain issues for the nomination process moving forward, and we can expect President Biden to hone in on this big issue right away. In addition to his recent guilty verdict, we still have a sentencing issue to contend with, which means that Donald Trump may not be able to accept his party’s nomination in person at the Republican National Committee (RNC) event on July 15-18.
Judge Juan Merchan has currently set Donald Trump’s sentencing for 10am/ET on July 11 and there is a possibility that he could be sentenced to prison, or be put on house arrest. Accordingly, preparations are currently being made at his Florida home in Mar-a-Lago, where a team is setting up “convention themed” staging to give the appearance that his absence is seamless and nothing out of the ordinary.
While Trump is known for giving the American public a lot of “firsts,” the impact of his conviction, should be Biden’s focus throughout. Watch for Biden to point out how abnormal this is, and how unimaginable it is to have a convicted felon serving in the highest office of the land. Trump, on the other hand, will use Thursday night to play the victim and allege that he is being unfairly persecuted, and he will no doubt be able to pull in a lot of donations as a result.
Trump will deflect all of these obstacles by accusing Biden of what Trump has actually done. I call this the “Hector Deflector” strategy. We can expect Hunter Biden’s recent conviction to come into play defensively as a pivot away from Trump taking any culpability or actually addressing anything factual. The key will be for Biden to move past the personal insults that Trump will undoubtedly sling, and quickly pivot into policy and his accomplishments, which are his strongest rebuttal to any of Trump’s unfounded allegations about Biden or his family.
The Polls Are CLOSE
According to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, which is comprised of several months of analysis concerning recent national surveys, President Biden and Donald Trump are basically tied. While this could seem discouraging for Biden supporters, it’s important to note that this information best reflects voters whose allegiances are already determined. This leaves a wide-open shot for a candidate to appeal to the undecided independent voter.
Despite steady growth in employment showing the labor market’s resilience under Biden and the fact that the United States is not actually in a recession, many Americans don't feel the economy is strong overall, or will help them or their families any time soon. According to a May poll conducted by Harris for The Guardian, more than half of Americans — 56% — mistakenly believe the US is currently in a recession and that Biden is responsible for a worsening economy.
This kind of public misperception will mean that Biden needs to explain what is actually happening and tie that in with how he intends to make things better, all in a way that the average US citizen can understand and appreciate. We know that President Biden is more than capable of doing this as evidenced by his State of the Union Address where he displayed a confident ability to dispel detractors and to correct the falsehoods being peddled in real time.
Donald Trump has an incredibly easy job where the economy is concerned because he has been laying the inaccurate groundwork that makes his supporters distrust anything Biden says, and he will parlay that with feeding into their economic dissatisfaction and anger.
Sadly, the majority of the American public is not well versed in the intricacies of American economics, so making this into a lesson on Thursday night will not likely go over well. We can expect the Trump rhetoric to be off the chart and overtly insulting, but the real question will be if Biden’s calm and steady tenor will appeal to undecided voters who have real Trump concerns and if those watching can keep from glazing over when explanations get complicated.
While there are a myriad of other political issues that should make this next election easy for the American voter, just remember what Clinton Campaign Strategist James Carville said in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” This issue will always be at the forefront for the undecided voter and we need to watch how Thursday night plays out to see what the Democrats are still missing in terms of messaging.
Trump’s Inflammatory Rhetoric
On Saturday, Donald Trump bragged at two of his campaign events that he told the President of the Ultimate Fighting Championship that he should start a competition with migrants so that the American public could be entertained by them fighting for their lives.
While this kind of messaging is especially shocking to those who don’t support Trump, it has proven to be a very successful way to bring up his fundraising numbers during the campaign. His supporters expect this kind of bombastic performance from Trump, who will undoubtedly be more focused on making money than he is on persuading voters. This style has always worked for him and what is concerning is how the public has gotten used to his outlandish statements.
Biden’s best response here would be to remind everyone of the actual danger Donald Trump has placed the United States in, specifically the insurrection he led at the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. This is the area where Biden has a slim majority in terms of polling on the public’s perception of that day. Fifty-five percent of voters said the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, while 43% said too much has been made of it and believe it's time to move on, so Biden needs to give this issue the proportionate amount of time, without over saturating listeners.
Traps for Trump
There is no doubt that President Biden is the seasoned political professional here, so many Republican insiders have been lamenting over their concern for certain “traps” that Trump could fall into that might turn the viewing public off. The Independent published a great article this week, condensing all of those landmines, which I will further condense here:
Trump needs to cool his jets and he knows it. In the first 2020 debate with Biden, Trump had a real issue with speaking over Joe Biden and the moderator, Chris Wallace. This is causing concern for the old guard who want him to stay calm. The problem is that Trump knows he will make money every time he pops off and the more egregious he gets, the more he stands to make.
I think this will be too much for him to resist and the bottom line: he does not have the discipline to shut up. Trump went so far as to ask his supporters at a rally in Philadelphia on June 22, whether he should be “tough and nasty” or “nice and calm” and let Biden speak. The fact that he is posing this question to a lot of hyped up rally goers just goes to show you he is not serious about taking the advice.
Abortion
Abortion protection rights are the next biggest issue, right up there with the economy, but unlike the economy, this is an easy stance to explain and for the American voting public to comprehend. While every measure on a ballot that has sought to protect abortion rights has definitively won since Roe v. Wade was overturned, it is still untested as to how it will affect a voter with regard to the candidate and not the law.
Following the overwhelming unpopularity of the Dobbs Decision and the astounding losses at the polls for Republicans, Trump formally made an attempt to walk the fence on the issue of abortion in May. Trump now claims the legal right to abortion should be left to the states whether to prosecute women for abortions or whether to monitor women’s pregnancies. He has declined to comment on access to the abortion pill mifepristone, which has been embroiled in an intense legal battle, and this will not do him any favors either.
This is where President Biden should really pull ahead and take the lead over Trump, who has changed his position several times, and who cannot be trusted to do what he says he will do. Biden should be able to successfully back Trump into a corner over his abortion record and his inability to clearly articulate what he supports. The issue of abortion in America is simple, and it is a right that is overwhelmingly supported by a majority of women — voters that Trump needs desperately in order to win swing states.
I will start the live chat on Tuesday at 8:30pm/ET so that we can have a little pre-game banter and get in the proper debate headspace, whatever that means with Trump on the stage. I look forward to talking with you all then and really hope you will join me.
Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter, is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines, and an analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
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I won’t be watching so this is a good alternative. There is no way I can stomach listening to trump. Hope to join and read along.