This Week Inside the Beltway

Welcome to your exclusive briefing on what to expect in the world of politics this week, with a quick glance at everything we will be monitoring here at SHERO.

Image of the US Capitol dome in Washington, DC. (via Getty Images)

Trump’s Godfather Moment at CPAC

Let’s have the Trump discussion quickly and move on. It is important to review his keynote speech at CPAC to give us indications of where the Republican Party might be heading, or at least the threats they might be facing in his quest for vengeance. You can watch the entire hour and a half speech below, if you are so inclined:

“Get rid of them all,” was the rally cry in Florida last night, as Trump stood under an America Uncanceled banner and ironically attemped to cancel a very long list of Republicans who opposed his lies concerning the attack on the Capitol. Trump called on his supporters to help him get rid of his enemies that he intends to primary out of existence.

This warning will hinge completely on money and how Trump and Republicans will be able to frame their respective fights. Another factor here is that telling CPAC straw poll that was also taken yesterday, that revealed they might only love Trump for his policies. (you can watch the poll in the video below)

CPAC 2021 @CPAC

Watch @JMcLaughlinSTK announce the results of the #CPAC2021 Straw Poll. #AmericaUnCanceled

Almost 7 in 10 of the poll’s participants said they would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, compared with 15 percent who said they would not and 17 percent who said they were unsure. Ninety-five percent said they want the Republican Party to continue with Trump’s agenda and policies, with 3 percent saying the GOP should change direction and 2 percent saying they were uncertain. The CPAC straw poll also asked respondents who they would support for president in a theoretical race if Trump was not a candidate. The results showed DeSantis with a wide lead at 43 percent support.

The real question moving forward will be whether Trump can fulfill his primary promises, and if his power within the party to raise money is as potent as he needs it to be. Many of the Senate Republicans that Trump named last night will be seen as easy wins because many are not running for re-election anytime soon. Out of the hit list, comprised of Mitt Romney, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Ben Sasse, Richard Burr, Pat Toomey and Lisa Murkowski, only Murkowski faces immediate risk in her next election in 2022. 

In the House, Republican Reps. David Valadao (CA) , John Katko (NY), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA) and Fred Upton (MI) are all from moderate districts and less likely to favor a candidate spouting Trump conspiracy theory rhetoric. This means that the only Representatives at real risk are Tom Rice (SC) and Liz Cheney (WY), but a factor that could hinder Trump’s plan will be the number of contenders for Trump’s trophy. If the primary race becomes saturated with challengers, it might actually help the incumbents, who will have real strength in name recognition.

Covid Relief Battle Goes to Senate

The final stage of the Covid relief bill will now take place in the Senate, as Biden’s signature “American Rescue Plan” that would provide $1.9 trillion in funding for the pandemic, faces its final hurdle. Even though Democrats will be using an expedited reconciliation process to move faster, we can expect this issue to take up the entire week, and for both sides to be peppering the media with various talking points.

• The $15 per hour minimum wage is on hold now, which will affect 17 million Americans who continue to struggle to make ends meet. If the issue is resurrected, expect it to be in a stand-alone bill, unless an unforeseeable quick measure can be added somewhere. Look for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to put forth a stand-alone bill on a minimum wage as we move closer to April. Stay tuned.

• There was a backup plan if the Senate parliamentarian were to rule against the inclusion of a $15 minimum wage in the reconciliation package, which she did. Senators Sanders (VT) and Wyden (OR) had planned to use a corporate tax for companies that refused to meet the $15 per hour threshold. That plan is also a non-starter now according to Democratic aides who say there was too much opposition to the plan in the Senate Democratic Caucus, and among House Democrats.

  

  From left: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in front of the Capitol Complex, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/via Getty Images)

• The Byrd Rule controls the limits of a reconciliation package in the Senate, and now Senate Democrats will have to draft a new bill that mirrors the one just passed in the House last week. With the presentation of a new bill on Wednesday, the clock will then start to toll on 20 hours of debate, equally divided between the two sides. Amendments can and will be offered during this period. Even after that time has expired, senators can still offer amendments (with certain restrictions) or make other motions — this does not require further debate, but a vote can be called on any and every issue that needs clarification and this process could get lengthy. The final step is the vote on passage of the entire bill, which will only require a simple majority due to the reconciliation process.

• Look for Senate Republicans to force delays with “structural problems” in the House bill that could violate the Byrd Rule, as they have been signaling this could be at issue but refusing to specify the exact nature of the roadblocks.

• Republicans are going to be using every tactic available to them procedurally to slow down the passage of the Covid relief bill, or to stop it entirely.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be juggling this entire process, along with Cabinet nominations on the floor, and the White House is adamant that it still wants Neera Tanden to be confirmed as Director of OMB, which could be difficult to accomplish. Schumer’s saving grace this week will be the requirement of a simple majority on the reconciliation vote for the Covid relief bill.

House Democrats Have a Busy Week

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks to the press during a post-acquittal news conference with House impeachment managers.on Feb. 13, 2021. (photo by Chip Sommovilla/via Getty Images

• Expect Democrats in the House to move on election reform, police reform, guns, immigration, a pro-workers’ rights bill and possibly the Violence Against Women Act and the Equal Rights Amendment.

• There will also be another vote on the new version of the Covid relief bill, once that passes in the Senate in the next two weeks.

• Bills from the House can move to the floor without a markup or hearing before April 1, so look for Democratic House leaders to push through a lot of legislation in the next several weeks.

• H.R. 1, the massive election reform meant to increase Americans’ access to the ballot box will be on the House floor and is expected to pass. The House adpoted the legislation in 2019, but it was stalled by a Republican Senate.

• Look for H.R. 1280, the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2021, sponsored by Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) to make it back to the House for another easy vote this week.

• More bills expected to come to the House floor for a vote include:

  - H.R. 842, the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which is a big workers’ rights bill that was approved by the House in 2020, but faces substantial opposition from Republicans and business groups.

  - H.R. 8, which would close the so-called “Charleston Loophole,” which allows gun purchases to proceed if the background check isn’t completed in three business days.

  - Both bills passed the House during the 116th Congress only to be blocked by Senate Republicans.

• Speaker Pelosi and senior Democrats are also looking to create some form of supplemental funding for the security issues involved in the breach on the Capitol on Jan. 6, in addition to another stand-alone minimum wage bill and the Paycheck Fairness Act.

• An infrastructure package (no, really) is also expected in the Spring, as talks between House Democrats and the White House have been ongoing —Democratic aides estimate spending to be between $1.5 trillion and $3 trillion.

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Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter and is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines and analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.

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