A Last Big Election, a Phone Call and a Coup Walk Into a Bar

The Georgia Election today will determine control the US Senate, and comes right after audio of Trump's shocking phone call is released, but just before GOP Senators plan to go rogue to defend Trump.

Georgia Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff (left) and Rev. Raphael Warnock (right) greet each other onstage during the "Vote GA Blue" concert on December 28, 2020 at New Birth Church in Stonecrest, Georgia. (Photo by Paras Griffin/via Getty Images)

Today is January 5, 2021 — the last major election that will determine which party in America controls the United States Senate, and who will have the advantage in Congress to move forward on their agenda. There are several things I’m focused on today, and I’d like you to consider following along.

You can follow my coverage of the Georgia run-off election in real time on Twitter and prepare for what will happen in the Senate tomorrow by getting some historical and procedural background with this post. You should also consider listening to the entire audio of Trump’s phone call on Saturday, where he tries to threaten and coerce the Georgia Secretary of State to modify the election results. I will post the entire video below.

I would also encourage you to comment below and get a great conversation started about everything that has been happening — this community is full of fabulous dialogue and you all make excellent points that many will want to read along with this. Also, if you have a question regarding the election or the Trump call, you can put that in the comments and I’ll answer them.

Georgia Special Election

Raphael Warnock (left) and Jon Ossoff (right) on the campaign trail as Democratic candidates for Georgia's US Senate seats in a special, run-off election on Jan. 5, 2021. (Photo via EP)

As polls open in Georgia this morning, Democrats are driving home the message that the stakes couldn’t be any higher, and ultimately, the fate of each party’s agenda rests on these two senatorial races and electing Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. These two Senate races have gone to a run-off election today, because none of the candidates won more than 50% of the vote in the general election.

If both Warnock and Ossoff win today, the Democratic caucus will have secured 50 seats in the Senate, which will force a tie-breaking vote from the Vice President, who presides as the President of the Senate, and casts the final vote. Since Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris will be sworn in on Jan. 20, and thus assume the position previously held by Mike Pence, her vote will ultimately give Democrats control of the Senate, after six years of a GOP majority.

Most of the recent polling data suggests that these races are incredibly close. More than 3 million people in Georgia have already cast an early ballot in today’s run-off race, which represents 38.8% of all registered voters in Georgia. The early vote in Georgia has already surpassed the previous total turnout record in 2008, by approximately 2.1 million votes. Early vote mail-in ballots tend to favor the Democratic candidates, but given the close polling numbers, and the increase in early voting due to the pandemic, it is difficult to get any real sense of how this will affect the outcome.

President-Elect Joe Biden arrives to board his plane at New Castle Airport in New Castle, Delaware, on Monday, Jan. 4, 2021, on his way to Atlanta, Georgia to campaign for Georgia Democratic candidates for US Senate, Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. (Photo by Carolyn Kaster/via Associated Press)

These two races will determine who has a majority in the United States Senate, and which party has the vote advantage and thus, the easier path to getting policy put into legislation. Without the votes, bills don’t pass and without control of the Senate, Biden will have a difficult time correcting the damage inflicted by Trump, Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party over the last several years.

It’s important to note that although a majority is critical and important, if we are unable to secure both seats today, we can still effectuate change. It will just require much more political maneuvering and compromise in order to secure the votes we will need to pass each bill. So, there is always a way, regardless of today’s election outcome…there’s just a much better way, and the preferable result is Democrats winning both of these races in Georgia today.

Trump Audio

Here is a video that contains the entire conversation on Saturday between Donald Trump and Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffesperger. As you listen to the call, I would encourage you to pull up this BBC article that fact checks all of the allegations made during the conversation. I you would like a great summary of the more shocking aspects of the conversation, you should click here. Raffensperger told ABC News yesterday that, “[Trump] did most of the talking. We did most of the listening."

Republicans Can’t Go That Wild in the Senate

Trump has been bragging for weeks about his plan on Jan. 6th to have his loyalists in the Senate overturn the election results and hand him a second term. This entire proposition is nearly as ludicrous as the senators who have come out publicly pledging their support to this cause.

While there may be several dramatic moments, there is no possibility that Republicans can actually change anything thanks to the Constitution. The focus will be on Pence and what he choses to do while he conducts business in the Senate on Wednesday, or if he even shows up at all. Axios reported that Trump believes if Pence does his job, which is to affirm the winner’s victory even if it is a candidate from an opposing party — it would be the “ultimate betrayal.”

Senate pages carry the Electoral College ballot boxes to lead senators in the House Chamber on Jan. 6, 2017, for the vote count to officially determine the presidential election winner. (Photo by Bill Clark/via CQ Roll Call)

Pence has no real power in this instance and there is nothing he can do to change the actual result. If he attends the session, he will just read the results aloud, as his job is simply ceremonial, which is why many are speculating that he won’t even attend the session. Below are the exact steps of what should happen in the Senate on Jan. 6:

1. At 1 pm/ET on Jan 6, 2021, all of the lawmakers from both the House and Senate chambers will assemble in the larger House chamber, with Vice President Pence presiding in his role as president of the Senate. If Pence attends, he will open the sealed certificates submitted by each state, and hand them to tellers who are appointed from both houses in Congress to read aloud. Reminder that Biden won 306-232.

2. In other instances, this entire process was very quick and over in less than half an hour. But, objections could delay the ceremony and we know that several Senators plan to object. The rules denote that state’s results can only be contested if a lawmaker from both the House and Senate submit a formal challenge in writing — this will cause the two chambers to split up for “not more than two hours” to debate the state’s results.

3. An objection has only been made twice in the history of Congress. Once in 2005, when Rep. Stephanie Tubbs (D-OH) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) objected to Ohio's electors, citing irregularities in the election. The House and Senate each rejected the objection, the joint session resumed and Ohio’s electors were formally counted. The second time was in 2017, when several Democrats rose to object to Trump's election. None had submitted a formal objection from both houses in writing, and Biden, who was overseeing the proceedings gaveled them down and declared, "It's over."

4. All attempts to change the results will fail, it’s just not entirely clear how this will happen as there is no historical precedent. Democrats hold the House majority and will not vote to overturn any of Biden's electors. Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has also called for all Senators wishing to contest the results to stand down.

5. If the Senate did vote this way to overturn a state’s results, and the House upheld the vote (Democrats control the House so this is extremely unlikely), federal law stipulates that the slate of electors that have “been certified by the executive of the State, under the seal thereof” will count. This means the certified results that have already been submitted from every state, even those that might be contested, would all count and this would still give Biden the win.

---

Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter and is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines and analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.

Paid subscriptions allow me to keep publishing critical and informative work that is sometimes made available to the public — thank you. If you like this piece and you want to further support independent journalism, you can forward this article to others, get a paid subscription if you don’t already have one or send a gift subscription to someone else today.