Nikki Haley's Only Hope
Trump won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire last night by nearly 10% points. Is there any strategy that Haley can use to stop a Trump nomination that seems inevitable?
"New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina…At one point in this campaign, there were 14 of us running, and we were at 2% in the polls. Well, I'm a fighter. And I'm scrappy. And now we're the last ones standing next to Donald Trump."
— former Governor Nikki Haley during her New Hampshire concession speech
"She did very poorly actually," he said. "The governor said she's going to win, she's going to win, she's going to win. Then she failed badly. We win it every time. We win the primary. We win the generals.""
— Donald Trump to a crowd of supporters following his primary win in New Hampshire last night
The New Hampshire Republican primary results last night were not shocking but they are completely overwhelming. For the first time in as long as I can remember, I did not watch the returns in real time, nor the exit polls, nor the many discussions analyzing the possible outcome. Politics are my personal religion, and lately I have been questioning how half of this country could still support Donald Trump…to the point where I either need counseling from a “priest,” or I just leave the church altogether and go live in the mountains or something.
I am certainly kidding about putting my love of politics completely aside for good — I could never do that. I have too much hope and when things are good, the inspiration I get from it is like a drug. Right now, after this second Trump primary win, with him doing little to no campaigning, I am in desperate need of a hit.
Trying to make sense of Trump supporters is nearly impossible for me, and this is not for lack of trying or skill. It is because one has to look at what someone is fighting against rather than fighting for — their rationale for doing anything is like a visit to opposite world. You have to assess someone’s anti-motivation because the Republican Party does not represent any ideals and they have no vision. Their only goal is to tear down the enemy and to do whatever they think their opposition does not want them to do.
I have decided to take a purely rational and strategic approach to assessing what happened in New Hampshire, and where the Republican Party will go from here. This is partly because I know the Trump juggernaut is about to steamroll it’s way to our worst nightmare, again, and because there appear to be few options left. Thanks to the complicated quagmire that is American Primary Politics, there are always a few, rare-case scenarios that could apply that might stop the Trump bulldozer, so let’s focus on those factors now to help clear our heads and hearts.
In my moment of tuning in to cable news for the returns last night, I heard a theory from Joy Ann Reid that is the only plausible path for Nikki Haley to win the Republican nomination. Reid was referencing Obama’s primary run in 2008 against Hillary Clinton, who took a big lead in the early races. She explained that Obama used a method of “thugging it out” (only my wonderful Joy Ann could get away with that metaphor) until they got to the smaller delegate states, where he chipped away at Clinton’s lead slowly but consistently.
This whole scenario was in response to Stephanie Rhule discussing the old guard “Bush” Republicans, who had been funding Nikki Haley in an attempt to take back the party from Trump. Rhule was adamant about two things: how deep the pockets of the OG GOP were and how much they despised Trump. Joy Ann Reid made the best argument for Haley beating Trump that I have heard so far: if Haley can keep “thugging it out” with that old school Republican money and amass a collection of delegates, and if Trump is convicted before the convention, she might have a chance at getting the Republican nomination.
This is a very interesting proposition. I believe my exact response in real-time was “it’s never gonna happen” and Joy Ann Reid finished her statement by saying, “Of course, this will never happen,” mere seconds after I said it out loud. But this concept is the only viable option left to stop Trump, given his party’s propensity to overlook every immoral and deviant move he makes.
Normally when a candidate has a strong early lead, you can count on the idea that anything can still happen to create subterfuge in that momentum. The candidate can make a critical misstep or the opponent can have a powerful viral moment that changes the trajectory of the race. The last ten years have shown us that Trump was in fact right about one thing: He COULD “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and [he] wouldn't lose any voters.”
I’d like to acknowledge the more morose side of my desperation at this point. I have considered the idea that Donald Trump could somehow die, and that this would be the only real way to stop his run in 2024. But as someone who believes strongly in karma as well as the principle that Trump is just the symptom of the Republican Party, not the disease, this idea is not really comforting. Besides, Trump’s message would only continue through another power-hungry, amoral figure, who would merely continue the Trump brand of a grift built on fear and hate.
All thoughts of death aside, the only other option to stop Donald Trump revolves around him being convicted, sentenced or imprisoned before the election. The odds of the justice system working in favor of a conviction, before July 15, 2024, are not likely. Trump’s attorneys are diligently ensuring this by appealing at every stage to purposely slow the process and buy him more time.
There are 2,429 delegates awarded in the Republican primaries. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs to win 1,215 delegates, which is exactly one more than half of the total number of delegates available. Donald Trump will likely have this majority number by the time Republicans are ready to declare a candidate this summer in Milwaukee. But there is one long-shot possibility — if Trump is convicted before the convention, or his conviction seems imminent to a majority of his party, they might want to vote for a candidate who has amassed a strong collection of delegates but is not at risk in the courts.
For this reason, Nikki Haley might be the last option that Republicans have to run a viable candidate against President Biden. The once-Governor of South Carolina has served at several levels of federal and state government, and certainly has more experience than Trump. She also possesses a blemish-free criminal record. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it has come to that.
Again, the issue of timing remains problematic. It is not realistic that Trump will be convicted criminally before July, and his motivation to win this election and secure his own pardon is clearly driving everything he does now. Moreover, Trump might be able to get his impending conviction to work in his favor as the victim, like he has at every stage so far. This might actually make him stronger. One thing is clear — the only hope left for the old Republican guard, Obi-Wan-Kenobi, is Nikki Haley, and in order to keep her in the game, they will have to put their much cherished money where their often compromised mouths are.
Normally, a trailing primary candidate is limited in time by the amount of funding they have left. This primary cycle will undoubtedly be unlike any other for many reasons: the biggest being that Nikki Haley will have lasting power born of big pocket donors who detest Donald Trump.
The next Republican primary election is in the Haley home state of South Carolina exactly one month from today. Even if Haley loses her own state, something that would be detrimental for any other candidate in any other election, a strong showing might still give her staying power for the reasons explained above. The real question is this — how much do the Republican elite, who have been displaced by Donald Trump truly hate him, and is it more than they hate Joe Biden.
Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter, is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines, and an analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
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"The real question is this — how much do the Republican elite, who have been displaced by Donald Trump truly hate him, and is it more than they hate Joe Biden." I think we all know the answer to that. All the so-called republican moderates who clutch their pearls and hope that disgrace of a human Trump doesn't get the nomination quickly follow that up with "sure I'll vote for him if he's the nominee." The whole party is a failure and the old guard may not like his tactics and antics but they do love his policies and judges. I'm with you, how can half the country, seemingly fairly logical and rational people, still vote for this criminal. It boggles the mind. The only conclusion I can come to is he makes hate okay, that is the simple truth of it. Their party is bankrupt of ideas and policies and has resorted to outright hate and bigotry. What was once not said in polite company is now plastered on the nightly news, in the newspapers and all over the social media landscape and Trump revels in it and makes it okay. Yes, sadly these are our neighbors, relatives, educators, etc. full of hate and bigotry. How else do you explain the endearing loyalty of MAGA world to a man with no policies, ideas, platform, plans, experience, success, or decency? Sad, sad times.
Nikki Haley will get buried on Super Tuesday, and she will get crushed by Trump in her home state of South Carolina. Like almost all of her fellow candidates, she will then bow before the altar and announce her support of him for President.
I can't quite believe that we are just a matter of a few hundred days away from potentially voting an anti-democratic election denier back to the White House (and I am convinced that if he does win, he will never leave the White House again), yet here we are.