Swing State Battle Heats Up
A new report shows an overwhelming number of Trump election denialists in critical swing states, as the latest election in Arizona punishes a Republican who stood up to Trump's lies.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters published on Tuesday, that was conducted online from July 24-28, Presumptive Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris has gained ground against Donald Trump in six of seven critical swing states. This latest data has Harris leading Trump in Michigan by 11 percentage points, while in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, she maintains a 2-point lead. Trump is ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania by 4 points and in North Carolina by 2 points and the poll has them in a dead heat in Georgia.
A similar poll conducted in early July showed Biden with the lead in Wisconsin by only 3 percent, but according to this latest poll Trump has narrowed the gap in that state, but is still within the margin for error overall. It’s important to note that all of these latest numbers are within the margin of error which is 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada. While these latest numbers favor Kamala Harris, this race is incredibly close, and this latest poll only emphasizes just how tight the race will be in these states, and just how important a role election officials will have in November with regard to declaring an accurate result.
While no poll is entirely reliable in terms of outcome, and we still have months to go before the next election, these numbers gauge where things stand now and just how close we can expect the final numbers to be in the general election in November. What this data can definitively tell us is that election officials in each of these locations will be instrumental in certifying an accurate and legitimate result. Given the actions of the Trump Campaign in 2020, we can expect Donald Trump to contest any final count in the courts that could change the election result so that he can declare victory regardless of the count.
At least 70 pro–Trump election denialists are currently working as election officials in key swing states, according to a report published on Monday. Officials who have previously promoted election conspiracy theories have been identified in 16 counties in six swing states including: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Twenty-two of these officials are in Georgia — a state with 159 counties — comprised of many former Trump election deniers who are currently working as local election officials.
Another threat still exists in Arizona, where the incumbent, who defended the 2020 election in the most populous county in the state, and was a fierce defender of Maricopa County election integrity, just lost the Republican Primary to keep his job. The Republican voters in Arizona have instead chosen Justin Heap, a former state representative, who is backed by the far-right Freedom Caucus and other conservative groups intent on seeing Trump regain the presidency.
Regardless of the legitimate results of the election in November, we can expect Trump loyalists to do the following: initiate some kind of election tampering accusation; declare victory for their party; and refuse to certify election results in their counties. We saw this play out in the courts in 2020, and we have watched Trump use this premise to continue to sell the idea to his followers in order to tee up another challenge in 2024.
While Donald Trump and his surrogates filed 62 lawsuits in 2020 to contest the election results in various states, Trump lost every battle he pursued in a court of law. Trump, who was convicted in May of 24 felony fraud charges in New York, went so far with his false rhetoric that he is facing felony charges in Georgia over his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
We can expect Georgia to be another major battleground state in 2024, with the bulk of election deniers still placed in strategic election roles to match Trump’s ongoing rhetoric of misinformation and unfounded conspiracy theories about his defeat in that state. We can also glean some insight into the Republican Denialism Plan for 2024, by watching states like Arizona, where election officials who were unwilling to lie for Donald Trump are being ousted in favor of anyone who will.
While the issue will no doubt be litigated again in 2024, regardless of the actual election results in November, the courts have proven to be a reassuring and accurate source for disproving Trump’s election lies. The real concern remains his ardent supporters, who continue to believe his false rhetoric and are ready to fight this election in November if Trump doesn’t win. New polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 57 percent of Republicans still believe that Biden was not legitimately elected as president, despite the courts determining otherwise.
Ultimately, the Democratic Party will have two major obstacles to overcome in 2024 — electing the first female president of color in the United States, and then keeping the peace throughout the country afterward, when Donald Trump attempts to claim victory. We can expect this next saga to play out over the remaining months of the year as we head to January for the inauguration. If elected, Kamala Harris will not only be responsible for winning the closest race in history, she will be responsible for keeping the peace and assuaging the rage of a large portion of America, which will no doubt still believe Donald Trump’s lies.
Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter, is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines, and an analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
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Yes it's going to be a mess. Unless the Democrats win by sizeable majorities which is unlikely then this election is sure to be railroaded, blocked and litigated as much as humanly possible. The Trumplican party is a cult, pure and simple. The once small government party of Reagan and Bush (though it never really was) is now openly all for installation by court, kind of the antithesis to small government. Just have better ideas and you'll win elections, but of course their ideas are garbage and will only hurt the majority of people so they result to election tampering and court battles. We are seriously living through a failing state, this must be what it was like in Rome as it was collapsing from within.
I think this is our biggest danger