Dr. Fauci Cancels Thanksgiving
Experts Warn of a Covid Surge in the Midwest
As temperatures in the Midwest and Northwest have started to go down, there’s been an uptick in positive Covid-19 test results, “which tends to be a predictor that you’re going to have surges,” according to leading expert Dr. Anthony Fauci. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin have seen a greater than 25 percent increase in coronavirus cases in the last two weeks, compared to the previous two weeks.
Minnesota has more than a thousand new Covid-19 cases for six days in a row, which is something the state hasn’t experienced since the start of the pandemic, and Wisconsin set a single day record for the state for coronavirus deaths on Tuesday, with 31 people dying from the virus.
States like Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota and Wyoming have some of the highest rates of new infections in the country, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. Ohio, which had previously been a state that was able to flatten the curve and keep Covid-19 infections in check, has now shattered its single day record for reported cases — The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that the state had 2,039 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday alone.
According to the Ohio Department of Health, these additional cases from Wednesday bring Ohio’s statewide active Covid-19 cases total to 173,665. Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) is now telling the people in his state to be prepared for a surge in virus cases. "Things will get better. But, in all likelihood they will get worse before they get better. We're already seeing that in the trend lines of the last few weeks," DeWine said.
The pandemic has been actively spreading inward from both coasts and a top public health expert in the region has confirmed that the change of season and an increased reluctance to take proper safety precautions are behind the latest increase in positive coronavirus cases.
President Donald Trump is also sending mixed messages to the country by returning to the campaign trail this week after being hospitalized for complications stemming from his Covid-19 infection last week. First Lady Melania Trump revealed on Wednesday that Barron Trump has contracted Covid-19, after initially testing negative when both of his parents became infected, but he has not developed any symptoms of the virus and has apparently resolved the virus by testing negative.
Vaccine Trials Hit Pause
This week Johnson & Johnson announced that it would be suspending the large late-stage clinical trial of its coronavirus vaccine due to an “unexplained illness” in one of the volunteers. Johnson & Johnson was behind several of its competitors in the race to achieve a safe vaccine, but this Phase 3 trial that began last month had some advantages over other manufacturers — it did not need to be frozen and required only one dose instead of two.
Johnson & Johnson joins manufacturer AstraZeneca, who was also forced to halt their vaccine trial when a participant became seriously ill after getting its dose of vaccine. That trial was previously stopped last month, and has yet to resume in the United States, even after locations abroad started the trial back up again. All Covid-19 vaccine trials for AstraZeneca were stopped approximately a month before the announcement this week from Johnson & Johnson.
Additionally, a government-sponsored clinical trial testing an antibody treatment made by the drug company Eli Lilly, was paused on Tuesday because of a “potential safety concern,” just one day after Johnson & Johnson shut their trial down. The government trial through Eli Lilly was intended to test the benefits of the manufactured therapy on hundreds of people hospitalized with Covid-19, as compared to a placebo.
All of the study participants also received another experimental drug, remdesivir, which has become commonly used to treat patients with Covid-19 and was used to treat President Trump while he was at Walter Reed Medical Center. Eli Lilly has not disclosed exactly how many of its participants have become sick, what they believe has made them ill or what the details of their illnesses were, so it’s possible that the additional drug that is currently used on patients may have had a negative effect on patient health.
There were reports on Tuesday of the Trump administration’s attempts to pressure the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) into “pre-licensing” an impending Covid-19 vaccine, citing a need for an emergency authorization. According to four senior officials with knowledge of the struggle, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn has rejected attempts from the Trump administration to rush the agency and is intent that the FDA should not appear to be politicizing its scientific determinations.
US Health Department officials argue that the FDA is holding coronavirus vaccines to a far higher standard than normal for an emergency authorization. Officials also believe that if the FDA makes it clear that the emergency authorization of a Covid-19 vaccine is equal to a “pre-licensure,” then any of the Medicaid loopholes that would keep everyone from receiving the vaccine for free will be closed.
FDA Commissioner Hahn is firmly opposed this suggestion by the Trump administration, and has concerns that failing to stick to the FDA’s technical language would erode the agency’s credibility. According to senior officials, Hahn wants to protect the FDA at call costs from any accusations that the agency might be allowing politics to influence its role in the hunt for a vaccine. It’s important to note that while Hahn has rebuffed a proposal at this time, the White House could still get involved and demand changes later on.
No Vaccine Until April; Conduct Your Holidays Accordingly
Dr. Anthony Fauci, top expert and Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has predicted that a Covid-19 vaccine “will likely be [available] within the first quarter of 2021, by let’s say April of 2021.” This timeline is slightly longer than Trump’s previous predictions, who has been using the Nov. 3 date of the election as a barometer — even going so far as to say that a vaccine could be released within the next few weeks.
This recent prediction from Dr. Fauci confirms what many had already feared — the 2020 holiday season will be impacted by the coronavirus and the need to limit social interaction. In an interview with CBS Evening News, Dr. Fauci warned of a potential spike in the number of cases of coronavirus that could result from larger gatherings such as Thanksgiving. Fauci expressed the danger of people traveling from locations with higher infection rates and gathering in an indoor setting while not knowing if they are carrying the virus and infecting others.
According to CDC instructions, “The more cases at your destination, the more likely you are to get infected during travel and spread the virus to others when you return.” The CDC explains that the lowest-risk travel scenario is driving with no stops to a destination, with only members of your household, staying in a house or cabin and bringing your own food and drinks.
While this might be difficult for many, Dr. Fauci has also suggested a quarantine and testing scenario for everyone who will attend their family gathering. “Maybe you want to come in and quarantine yourself for a number of days or get tested a couple of times before you go in,” Dr. Fauci said. (Click the video below to play the interview.)
"I think given the fluid and dynamic nature of what's going on right now in the spread and the uptick of infections, I think people should be very careful and prudent about social gatherings, particularly when members of the family might be at a risk because of their age or their underlying condition," Fauci told Norah O’Donnell on Wednesday. "Namely, you may have to bite the bullet and sacrifice that social gathering unless you're pretty certain that the people that you're dealing with are not infected."
Dr. Fauci discussed the difference between gatherings with members of the same household and riskier ones, like those with family members that have to travel to another household. He said that he's not worried about infecting his wife or vice-versa because they don't gather with other people outside their home and spend time primarily with each other.
Dr. Fauci also explained that his three children will not be traveling to his home this year, which is the usual tradition for his family. Even though his children would prefer to come home for the holiday, Dr. Fauci explained that they had made the decision not to travel for Thanksgiving this year out of concern for he and his wife given their ages and out of caution for not contracting Covid-19 while they travel.
Fauci went on to explain, “I’m not going to criticize people who do it differently, but look at the individual situation in your own family and make a decision that way.” The safest option is to do what experts, like Dr. Fauci, will be doing with his own family this year — he has canceled Thanksgiving. Given that we are not likely to see a vaccine until next Spring at the earliest, it looks like it might be time to face facts and start thinking about canceling Christmas as well.
If you want to take the safest, most appropriate precautions to protect yourselves and others, you should do what Dr. Fauci is doing. This year I was set to host Thanksgiving, and I had a new monogramed roasting pan and a brining kit from Williams Sonoma and everything. Every year I call my turkey my “practice turkey,” as if I am perfecting my roasting skills for some inevitable Thanksgiving competition that I am sure win. I guess I can still roast a practice turkey and just have leftovers for a month. It looks like I need to make that call home that I have been avoiding and start working on airline ticket refunds for my family.
Amee Vanderpool writes the SHERO Newsletter and is an attorney, published author, contributor to newspapers and magazines and analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
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Vaccines don't happen overnight. When Easter was canceled, we knew Thanksgiving and Christmas would be too. Now, with the pause in trials, I think a spring vaccine is questionable. How many more delays will happen? How many will be re-infected, by then? Would the vaccine help them? I get so upset when I think of how things could've been so different if we had leaders who reacted properly, instead of worrying about the damn market. I know there will be a huge surge during and after the holidays. Just like now, some people will not listen to science. This is far from over. All we can do is be prepared and stay as safe as we can.
Another excellent piece, Amee. We’re coming to terms with the fact that Thanksgiving, twins’ fourth birthday, Xmas, and a 7th birthday in Feb will all be cancelled. It’s too cold in MN to do outdoor gatherings. I just bought face shields for my entire family to get us through this.