(Voters wait in-line for casting their ballots outside a polling place on Election Day November 8, 2016 in Alexandria, Virginia. Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton only carried Virginia with a victory margin of 5.02 percent, despite her running mate, Tim Kaine, being from Virginia. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images.)
I can’t stop thinking about one of the biggest unknown factors in this next election that no one can predict: the stealthy voter who stays quiet, doesn’t engage in the arguments, and then pulls that lever for Trump knowing no one will ever know. We had a huge issue with people not turning out to vote in 2016 because they assumed Hillary Clinton had the election on lock, but there was also the phenomenon of people voting for Trump, but being too embarrassed to actually tell anyone.
Everyone underestimated Trump’s level of support in 2016 and I’m not sure why 2020 would be any different. In fact, it seems that someone voting for Trump would want to keep a vote cast for him concealed even more given the increasingly volatile political climate. If a substantial percentage of Trump voters are keeping their votes on the down-low, how can we really measure them?
Pew Research Group explains that less educated voters, who were and are still a key demographic for Trump on Election Day, are consistently hard for pollsters to reach because they systematically do not respond to surveys. Pew goes on to describe “Shy-Trumper Syndrome,” where many voters who are polled are not honest about whom they intended to vote for. If this was a phenomenon of any real significance in 2016, I can’t imagine that it will suddenly change now, when racial tensions are inflamed to levels we haven’t seen in years. (Take a look at the video below, which shows a fascinating interview with a Trump voter, it will make your head spin.)
The real question is: what percentage of Shy Trumpers are we truly working with in 2020? Let’s just say, for argument sake, that it is 2% of those polled who vote for Trump and then lie about it on a survey. On their own, those quiet votes may not add up to much, but considering that we don’t really know what they were in 2016, that number could be a gross under-prediction. We also need to factor in all of the other election interference that will no doubt continue again during this election cycle including: foreign interference, polling and ballot access in minority areas being reduced, USPS mail delays causing mail-in ballots to be rejected and other miscellaneous election tampering that we have yet to discover.
Do you know people in 2016 who voted for Trump and didn’t immediately talk about it or admit it? Do you know people who still don’t talk about it, but you suspect it? Do you know someone who claims they are voting for Biden but you don’t really believe it? Since there is no real way to measure this factor and polls are not terribly accurate to begin with, I would like some sense about how big this issue will really be. What do you think?
I'm not really sure how accurate polls are, but I do know if we don't get out and vote for Biden in droves he might actually lose, and the thought of the current resident of the White House spending another four years pillaging our beloved country is beyond horrendous. Each day I wake up with a sense of doom, waiting to see what he has said or done and it makes me wonder how anyone could want him around for another term. Remember "Teflon Don"? We might as well rename
the current resident of the White House Teflon Donny. I'm 75, I don't know if my heart (or psyche) can take much more of him. Thank you for keeping us aware of the course of events.
My niece’s husband is a huge MAGA guy, believes conspiracy theories, etc. We’ve had a LOT of debates about this. He tells everyone my niece voted for trump because she’s a small business owner, but she’s also an adoptee from Paraguay, a mom, and has a gay business partner. I asked her privately if she really voted for him and she said,”Oh, HELL no!” She’s had to carry her citizenship papers with her ever since his inauguration. I know she’ll keep her vote for Biden a secret.
I think this is and was an actual phenomenon but I also think the same phenomenon is occurring among Biden voters. The intensifying scale of trumputin's rhetoric against Democrats in general, liberals, the mythical antifa (we are all antifa as far as he's concerned because he is a fascist), BLM, and his not quite open support for the kid who killed two people in Kenosha and the "peaceful" trumpies who fired paint balls (actually that's assault) make it hard for Biden folks to come clean in public. In surveys, I think they are honest and probably more accessible than low-info voters, which skews all poll results.
As Robin Boyle says here, anything less than tidal wave of Biden voters will set off a kind of chaos never seen in this country. I am convinced that on November 4 - even though tens of millions of mail-in votes will not have been counted - that trumputin is going to claim fraud and interference and turn the streets of the US into terror zones. Commerce will stop. People who are not armed will not leave their houses. The kind of convoy seen in Portland will occur in dozens of cities and towns - possibly hundreds. I don't care; I am and will be armed myself because I don't intend to be a helpless victim of men and women juiced up by trumputin's claims of theft of the election. I am on the dark side of the street now and won't be coming back out until Biden is sworn in; if that does not happen, there is nothing to come back to.
I'm 73 years old. This is the worst state this country has ever been in, IMO, by a huge margin.
This can go both ways. How many inherently decent people, not just in deep red states but in deep red areas in swing states, will vote for Biden and the Democrats and never tell anyone? How many people in a neighborhood where there's a Trump sign on every lawn, who are surrounded by AR-15-waving MAGAts, will vote for change, decency, democracy and an end to the madness? Can't really picture people like this telling Trump nuts at the neighborhood Labor Day pool party that they're not voting for their guy.
I'm of the opinion that there are a LOT more of these "closet Trump voters" than we know. Most Trumpbots I know are open and proud of their support for him, but there are more than a few I know who are definitely going to vote for him even if they won't openly admit it. It's but one of the reasons that I think that he's going to win again.
I don't so much worry about your valid point unknowns are unknown, and have existed in almost all election to some extent in history, my biggest concern is Biden conflict in supporting gold standard items of progresses, and climate change, and yet see the platform change during the convention in saying to continue to fund fossil fuels, and yesterday's speech saying he would not ban Fracking, while this maybe trying to attract more on the fence voters, it worrys me it could turn off voters who want reduce or do away completely of fossil fuels, I guess my point is anti status quo voters are more likely to vote for Trump if they think there is no change in fossil fuel funding with either party thus ignoring climate change and see selling drilling leases (arctic reserve) as away to make money, rather then change verses the pro climate change voters who will vote for a third party or not vote at all, rather then vote for Biden who is still funding fossil fuels and supporting fracking which could effect ground water, add to possible stink holes, and ignore the progressive part of the party, creating more swing votes impacting turn out or lost votes...
I add this to the limited addressing of voters who supported Bernie, and now rebuked twice.
I have had the same fears. One woman whom I have known to be a very good person for many years will vote for him again for two reasons: "All I know is I put x$ in the stock market, and it has tripled." Plus, regarding the Democratic presidential debates months ago, "I looked at everybody on that stage and couldn't stand the thought of voting for any of them." (Where did she go??) The fact that some people who have good hearts and have done many good deeds in their lives yet can still vote for Trump has me completely baffled. I asked another person whom I suspected voted for Trump, but never said outright that he did, if he was going to vote for Trump again (said it like he had told me.) He said, "Well, I can't see myself voting for Biden. He's okay, it's just those socialists all around him that would be running the country." Both are college educated, upper 10% in income. If those kind of people are going to vote for him, plus his base, we have to be worried.
I live in a small suburb of Phila. in Montgomery County. I have never seen so many trump signs as I have this year. Even in 2016, I didn't see this many. This is truly frightening to me. Please ignore the polls and vote. This is the most important election of our lives!
I agree there are a lot of closet tRumpers. I'll admit it, I do fear the election. I have never seen such rabid followers. But as we've been warned, all our lives - it's the quiet ones you have to worry about. We blue dots have to vote in numbers never seen before. We have to start healing, we live not survive another 4 years of tRump!
I’m 45, a vegetarian, in good shape, and the stress of all this gave me a literal heart attack. I actually scaled back my activism (which included a funny—I hope—educational political podcast) to chill a bit, but HOW DO WE INFORM people? How do we show them the violence is caused by the fear that Trump incites?
I'm not really sure how accurate polls are, but I do know if we don't get out and vote for Biden in droves he might actually lose, and the thought of the current resident of the White House spending another four years pillaging our beloved country is beyond horrendous. Each day I wake up with a sense of doom, waiting to see what he has said or done and it makes me wonder how anyone could want him around for another term. Remember "Teflon Don"? We might as well rename
the current resident of the White House Teflon Donny. I'm 75, I don't know if my heart (or psyche) can take much more of him. Thank you for keeping us aware of the course of events.
My niece’s husband is a huge MAGA guy, believes conspiracy theories, etc. We’ve had a LOT of debates about this. He tells everyone my niece voted for trump because she’s a small business owner, but she’s also an adoptee from Paraguay, a mom, and has a gay business partner. I asked her privately if she really voted for him and she said,”Oh, HELL no!” She’s had to carry her citizenship papers with her ever since his inauguration. I know she’ll keep her vote for Biden a secret.
I think this is and was an actual phenomenon but I also think the same phenomenon is occurring among Biden voters. The intensifying scale of trumputin's rhetoric against Democrats in general, liberals, the mythical antifa (we are all antifa as far as he's concerned because he is a fascist), BLM, and his not quite open support for the kid who killed two people in Kenosha and the "peaceful" trumpies who fired paint balls (actually that's assault) make it hard for Biden folks to come clean in public. In surveys, I think they are honest and probably more accessible than low-info voters, which skews all poll results.
As Robin Boyle says here, anything less than tidal wave of Biden voters will set off a kind of chaos never seen in this country. I am convinced that on November 4 - even though tens of millions of mail-in votes will not have been counted - that trumputin is going to claim fraud and interference and turn the streets of the US into terror zones. Commerce will stop. People who are not armed will not leave their houses. The kind of convoy seen in Portland will occur in dozens of cities and towns - possibly hundreds. I don't care; I am and will be armed myself because I don't intend to be a helpless victim of men and women juiced up by trumputin's claims of theft of the election. I am on the dark side of the street now and won't be coming back out until Biden is sworn in; if that does not happen, there is nothing to come back to.
I'm 73 years old. This is the worst state this country has ever been in, IMO, by a huge margin.
This can go both ways. How many inherently decent people, not just in deep red states but in deep red areas in swing states, will vote for Biden and the Democrats and never tell anyone? How many people in a neighborhood where there's a Trump sign on every lawn, who are surrounded by AR-15-waving MAGAts, will vote for change, decency, democracy and an end to the madness? Can't really picture people like this telling Trump nuts at the neighborhood Labor Day pool party that they're not voting for their guy.
I'm of the opinion that there are a LOT more of these "closet Trump voters" than we know. Most Trumpbots I know are open and proud of their support for him, but there are more than a few I know who are definitely going to vote for him even if they won't openly admit it. It's but one of the reasons that I think that he's going to win again.
I don't so much worry about your valid point unknowns are unknown, and have existed in almost all election to some extent in history, my biggest concern is Biden conflict in supporting gold standard items of progresses, and climate change, and yet see the platform change during the convention in saying to continue to fund fossil fuels, and yesterday's speech saying he would not ban Fracking, while this maybe trying to attract more on the fence voters, it worrys me it could turn off voters who want reduce or do away completely of fossil fuels, I guess my point is anti status quo voters are more likely to vote for Trump if they think there is no change in fossil fuel funding with either party thus ignoring climate change and see selling drilling leases (arctic reserve) as away to make money, rather then change verses the pro climate change voters who will vote for a third party or not vote at all, rather then vote for Biden who is still funding fossil fuels and supporting fracking which could effect ground water, add to possible stink holes, and ignore the progressive part of the party, creating more swing votes impacting turn out or lost votes...
I add this to the limited addressing of voters who supported Bernie, and now rebuked twice.
I have had the same fears. One woman whom I have known to be a very good person for many years will vote for him again for two reasons: "All I know is I put x$ in the stock market, and it has tripled." Plus, regarding the Democratic presidential debates months ago, "I looked at everybody on that stage and couldn't stand the thought of voting for any of them." (Where did she go??) The fact that some people who have good hearts and have done many good deeds in their lives yet can still vote for Trump has me completely baffled. I asked another person whom I suspected voted for Trump, but never said outright that he did, if he was going to vote for Trump again (said it like he had told me.) He said, "Well, I can't see myself voting for Biden. He's okay, it's just those socialists all around him that would be running the country." Both are college educated, upper 10% in income. If those kind of people are going to vote for him, plus his base, we have to be worried.
I live in a small suburb of Phila. in Montgomery County. I have never seen so many trump signs as I have this year. Even in 2016, I didn't see this many. This is truly frightening to me. Please ignore the polls and vote. This is the most important election of our lives!
I agree there are a lot of closet tRumpers. I'll admit it, I do fear the election. I have never seen such rabid followers. But as we've been warned, all our lives - it's the quiet ones you have to worry about. We blue dots have to vote in numbers never seen before. We have to start healing, we live not survive another 4 years of tRump!
I’m 45, a vegetarian, in good shape, and the stress of all this gave me a literal heart attack. I actually scaled back my activism (which included a funny—I hope—educational political podcast) to chill a bit, but HOW DO WE INFORM people? How do we show them the violence is caused by the fear that Trump incites?