Primary Elections Show Several Pivots
(Detailed view of a voting booth during Tuesday’s Kentucky primary election on June 23, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky at the Kentucky Exposition Center. Photo by Brett Carlsen, via Getty Images.)
The votes are in, but far from counted. Several states held primary elections yesterday, but we are still waiting on the results from close House races in New York and a hotly contested Senatorial race in Kentucky. This election saw an increase of vote by mail access, which means the days of getting results fairly soon after polls close could be a thing of the past, even with the Presidential Election in November.
The Virus and Mail In Ballots
The novel coronavirus is worsening in many places across the United States and considering we have done nothing really to slow its progression, it looks like mail in voting will be a big thing this year. Trump has frantically tried to spin false pitfalls of the method, but it has been hard for even Republican dominated states to dispute that vote by mail does keep people safe.
A new takeaway from last night seems to be a shift in how quickly close races are determined and has shown that Americans will need to do something they are not good at — being patient. The flip side of this new voting option is that many voters will cast a vote when they previously would not go to the polls on Election Day and this plays against Trump. Another issue could be Republicans attempting to close off polling access, citing less need due to a supposed lower in-person voter turnout.
(View of cleaning supplies used by polling place workers to clean voting booths between voters at a polling place in the Kentucky Exposition Center on June 23, 2020 in Louisville, Kentucky. Photo by Brett Carlsen, via Getty Images.)
Let’s use Kentucky as the example. The state had previously delayed their primary over concerns about COVID-19 and decided to allow all voters to request absentee ballots ahead of the vote. The result was fewer polling locations and poll workers to staff those operations. Not only does this affect those who work and cannot afford to stand in long lines or vote during a twelve hour window, it could also hinder first time voters who are new to the process and unsure of how it all works.
According to the Kentucky Secretary of State, the state typically has around 3,700 polling places. The state of Kentucky limited the total number of precincts available for the entire state to just 170 locations on Tuesday. Even worse, state leaders limited the state's two most populous counties, Fayette and Jefferson, to having one in-person polling location each with fewer workers to assist.
This is a direct hit on the minority vote and voters who are more apt to vote a Democratic ticket. Make no mistake, yesterday’s election was a test run for an even bigger operation — limiting poll accessibility as a response to more vote by mail options will most definitely be a highly utilized form of voter suppression by Republicans to counter voter turnout in November.
The Progressive Push
Last night saw the emergence of Progressive contenders in areas previously thought impossible. Not surprisingly, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won big and won early in New York’s 14th District. Her constituents are clearly not concerned by the learning curve she has tackled and are set on supporting someone who will push back against the establishment. This further opens the door for newcomers like Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones, who are campaigning to replace the state's two longest serving House members.
Bowman, a former Middle School Teacher who is new to politics, is running to unseat Rep. Eliot Engel in New York’s 16th District, and early polls results currently show that he may do just that. His fresh campaign sparked lots of interest for new voters who have turned out for him overwhelmingly. It also didn’t help that incumbent Eliot Engel was overheard on a hot mic in early June saying that he "wouldn't care" about speaking at a protest event in New York City if he didn't have a primary coming up.
(Educator and progressive Jamaal Bowman, who is seeking to unseat incumbent Eliot Engel for the 16th Congressional District, meets with voters at a school on June 23, 2020 in Mount Vernon, New York. The 16th District includes the northern Bronx and the suburban cities of Mount Vernon, Yonkers, New Rochelle, and Rye in the southern half of Westchester County, NY. (Photo by Spencer Platt, via Getty Images.)
Bowman was quick to capitalize on the idea that the Engel comment "captures everything that is wrong with too many in Washington," a sentiment that is obviously felt by voters in his New York district. If the vote by mail numbers hold up like the election night numbers, Bowman might just accomplish one of the biggest upsets not seen since Engel defeated incumbent Democrat Mario Biaggi in 1988.
Mondaire Jones, who has the chance to be the first openly gay Black Congressman, entered the New York 17th District race early before incumbent Nita Lowey announced her retirement last year. He joins Adem Bunkeddeko and Suraj Patel, who are both trying to defeat longtime incumbent Reps. Yvette Clark and Carolyn Maloney, respectively, in a pair of New York City districts. Patel currently trails Maloney by just 1.5% points and Jones has figuratively blown away all other contenders so far.
All Eyes on Kentucky
Democratic State Rep. Charles Booker has given Amy McGrath a huge challenge to become the Democratic Candidate who squares off against Mitch McConnell in November. McGrath is seen as heavily favored former fighter pilot, who has been backed by the Democratic establishment and has taken in tens of millions of dollars around the country for her previously presumed showdown with McConnell.
(Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate Amy McGrath and Charles Booker make visits to Pikeville, Kentucky, on Monday, June 22, 2020.)
Booker put a solid wrench in McGrath’s plan and is trailing now in single digits. The young, Black lawmaker entered the race later on, but was quickly backed by Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who helped to elevate his emerging profile during the protests in Louisville following the shooting of Breonna Taylor.
The popularity of this race created heavy turnout in populated cities like Louisville, which was left with only one polling place for both Jefferson and Fayette counties, with a combined population of 1 million. Polls across Kentucky were set to close at 6 p.m. yesterday, but procedural changes instituted by officials due to the coronavirus pandemic left many voters stuck outside of the Kentucky Exposition Center because they could not park their cars.
Just before 6 p.m., people began to run to the doors to get inside the building before the deadline and when some did not make it, they pounded on the glass windows to be let in. Booker was able to secure a court order that extended the polling hours to 6:30 p.m. and those who were outside were let in. (See video in tweet below.)
Polls were then closed again, leaving many out who were finally arriving due to the parking restrictions and trying to vote. The McGrath Campaign announced on Twitter a little after 6:45 p.m. that she was filing an injunction to try to keep the polls open even later, but poll workers were packing up for the night shortly after 7 p.m.
Regardless of who wins this race in Kentucky, one thing is perfectly clear — if the option for mail-in voting is continued, the access for in-person voting will also decrease. Everyone needs to prepare contingency plans now for this kind of result in triplicate.
Upset in North Carolina Shows Trump Slipping
An interesting upset last night came from a young veteran in North Carolina. Madison Cawthorn, a 24-year-old political newcomer, defeated Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate Lynda Bennett in the North Carolina GOP congressional primary. Cawthorn will now become the Republican candidate for the seat vacated by Trump's Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, a spot that Trump thought he could easily fill with his own pick.
Cawthorn is a real estate investor who was partially paralyzed in a 2014 car crash and is still technically too young to serve right now according to the Constitution. But, he turns 25 in August, which means he will make the age deadline just in time to be sworn in if he is elected in November. If he wins, he would become the youngest member in Congress, a title currently held by Ocasio-Cortez.
This upset is huge in that is represents Trump’s previous hold on his base diminishing. Even though the state still strongly favors Trump in the Presidential Election, this latest vote has made it clear that if given another option other than Trump within the Republican Party, the people of North Carolina just might take it. Given the recent shift to purple for metropolitan areas within North Carolina, things are suddenly less clear for the Trump Campaign in previous strongholds.
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Amee Vanderpool writes the “Shero” Newsletter and is an attorney, contributor to magazines and newspapers and analyst for BBC radio. She can be reached at avanderpool@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter @girlsreallyrule.
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Engel's loss to Bowman (even though it hasn't been OFFICIALLY called yet, I am calling it!) is a loss to those of us who consider ourselves to be pro-Israel progressives. However, he set himself up for this, in the same way that Joe Crowley did in 2018. They lost touch with their constituents and developed a sense of entitlement/arrogance, and if you do that, you open yourself up to the possibility of being unseated. The same thing happened to Eric Cantor on the Republican side a few years back.
Thank you again!