Will Covid Hurt or Help Trump?
Many speculate about the president's medical condition, including questioning if he even has the coronavirus -- but will his condition get him those critical swing votes both candidates are chasing?
(Trump waves to the crowd outside of Walter Reed Medical Center. Photo by Chip Somodevilla, via Getty Images.)
After the first Presidential Debate, which was particularly caustic for Trump, Biden jumped 14-percentage-points against Trump, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, with 53% of registered voters backing the Democratic nominee and 39% supporting Trump. That 14-point post-debate advantage represented Biden's largest lead in the NBC News/WSJ poll during the entire campaign; his previous high was 11 points in July.
In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday, Biden is ahead of Trump by 10 percentage points (51%-41%) among likely voters, which is only a 1-point jump from a poll by the same pollsters on Sept. 30. That increase falls within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It is also one of the first snapshots we have of the public’s reaction to Trump getting Covid, and his reckless behavior since being diagnosed and sent to the hospital.
Another new nationwide poll for CNN, completed entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public, found that among likely voters, 57% say they will vote for Biden compared to 41% for Trump.
The biggest declines for Trump in NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll immediately after the debate were among seniors and suburban women, who are now backing Biden 62%-Trump 35% and 58%-33%, respectively. Although polling is never terribly reliable, it can give us one of the last glimpses available with less than a month before the election. While the numbers are not precise, and always involve a margin for error, the jumps and shifts by demographic can be revealing.
Considering that Trump is struggling with older Americans and the suburban women who helped him over the threshold in 2016, will his disregard for protecting others continue to hurt him more? Will his inability to breathe after climbing a few steps at the White House get him pity or be seen as a weakness?
I can’t say I have my pulse on the average independent swing voter — I can hardly understand them or their way of determining who to vote for. But, with so many Americans requesting early ballots and voting before the election in record numbers, will Trump be able to pull any sympathy from the undecided electorate? Will they see his joyride around Walter Reed as an insult to every person who could not say goodbye to a loved one as they were dying from this virus?
Could this last week help him in any way? Will the country react to his failure to help the many staffers and journalists in the White House who are now testing positive for the virus because of his lack of policy and inaction? What do you think these latest unprecedented events will do to hurt or help Trump?
They hurt him, Amee, as he hurts himself. It’s not that there are so many undecideds left, it is that people who convinced themselves they had no reason to vote against Trump (or even to vote at all) are compelled to see their own self-interest in seeing Biden’s style return (not sartorial). For those who try to block the noise of politics from their lives they strain as the economy and virus wane and wax respectively... and know that there must be some collective alternative better than what’s landed us here. I see it when I drop political literature for way-down ballot candidates. People are hungry at their doors for reassurance that we can govern ourselves better and pull ourselves out of this mess. I can’t say for sure, but I do tell them it starts with a vote — theirs.
His recklessness angers me to no end. He spit on the graves of those who lost their lives to COVID and insulted those have had it and those still battling residual effects. I can speak of what I saw, today, when shopping. I am in KY, for starters, I saw less masks today. I also saw new tRump flags and yard signs. I don't think his theatrics hurt him, with his base, they are dug in. I don't listen to polls, they have become a deterrent to some. The only way to get rid of him is vote! I am just so damn done with this soulless clown. I loathe him and all his enablers.